Althouse | category: polls



an endless succession of beans and nuts.

"In the past several years, views have shifted on gender identities. In 2021, nearly six in ten Americans (59%) said ..."

"... there are only two gender identities, man and woman, and 40% of Americans believed there are many gender identities. The following year, in 2022, 62% of Americans believed that there are only two gender identities, and more than one-third (35%) said there are many gender identities. This divide slightly increased again in 2023, with 65% saying there are two gender identities and 34% saying there are many." 

From a PRRI study of more than 5,000 Americans.

Much more at the link.

More than four in ten Americans (43%) agree with the idea that “young people are being peer pressured into being transgender,” while 55% disagree. A majority of Republicans (74%) agree, compared with 41% of independents, and 21% of Democrats.

White evangelicals (75%), Latter-day Saints (70%), and Hispanic Protestants (60%) are the only religious groups in which majorities of adherents say that young people are being peer pressured into being transgender. By contrast, just under half of white mainline/non-evangelical Protestants (48%) and white Catholics (47%) believe this to be true, along with 42% of Black Protestants, 41% of other Protestants of color, 35% of Hispanic Catholics, and 32% of members of other non-Christian religious. Religiously unaffiliated Americans (27%) and Jewish Americans (25%) are the least likely to agree that young people are being peer pressured into being transgender.

Fewer than four in ten Generation Z Americans (36%) and millennials (38%) agree that young people are being peer pressured into becoming transgender, compared with about half of both Generation Xers (47%), boomers (48%), and members of the Silent Generation (47%).

"The 18% of Americans who are satisfied with the state of the nation today is about half of the 35% historical average."

"Gallup has measured national satisfaction since 1979. The lowest reading was 7% in October 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. The high point was 71% in February 1999 during the dot-com boom and after the Senate acquitted President Bill Clinton in his impeachment trial. Currently, 33% of Democrats, 18% of independents and 4% of Republicans are satisfied."
The question asked is: "In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?"

ADDED: This is the 70,000th post on this blog.

"Nearly half (45%) of Republican voters – including those who lean toward the GOP – say Trump is definitely the strongest candidate..."

"... to beat President Joe Biden in 2024, and another 18% think he is probably the strongest candidate. Just one-third of GOP voters say another Republican would definitely (13%) or probably (19%) be a stronger candidate than Trump. Among voters who name Trump as their top-of-mind preference for the GOP presidential nomination, 74% say he is definitely the strongest candidate the party can put up against Biden and 21% say he probably is. Among those who express support for another candidate or have no choice at this stage, nearly 4 in 10 still feel Trump is either definitely (23%) or probably (16%) the strongest nominee the GOP can field. Only 22% of this group says the strongest Republican contender would definitely be someone other than Trump and 33% say it would probably be another candidate."

“If your main argument to Republican voters is that Trump wouldn’t be the party’s strongest nominee, you’ve got a heck of a challenge ahead of you,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “There’s a bit of a chicken and egg problem with assessing electability. As we found in our polling during the 2020 Democratic primaries, if voters back a candidate based on issues or character they also tend to feel that candidate is the most electable. However, this still underscores the larger point in this poll. If your message to voters who support Trump is he cannot win, you are going to hit a brick wall. Even if you eat into the group who thinks he is only ‘probably’ the strongest candidate, you may still not capture enough of the Republican electorate to overcome Trump’s hardcore base support.”

"The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 62% of Likely Republican voters would vote for Trump in the primaries..."

"... while 17% would vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Several other announced or possible 2024 candidates have single-digit support...."

That's a 45-point lead over DeSantis.

"The ever-controversial former president's lead hasn't disappeared or even diminished in recent weeks, despite being charged with numerous crimes."

"In the most recent poll reading, Trump stands at 55% support, up from 47% in April and 51% in March. His nearest challenger, Ron DeSantis, claims 17% of the GOP's voters, down from 23% in April and 21% in March. Do the math: Trump has extended his lead over the popular Florida governor to 38 percentage points, versus 24 percentage points last month and 28 percentage points in March. No other Republican candidate reaches double-digit support."

From "Even Amid Trump's Legal Troubles, His Lead Widens: I&I/TIPP Trump leads DeSantis 55%-17% in the GOP Primary" (TIPP Insights).

The quote in the post title is grammatically bad — the "former president's lead" was not charged with crimes — but I'm using it anyway.

Biden has only 39% support on the Democratic side, and that's exactly the same as last month and despite his lack of a serious challenger. 9% of Democrats are for Bernie Sanders, but last I looked, Sanders has endorsed Biden. That's his closest competitor.

That puts Biden up by only 30 percentage points compared to Trump's 38 point lead over DeSantis. And Trump is gaining month by month, while Biden is losing ground. He was up by 34 points in March. 

The Washington Post Editorial Board closes in on Biden: "Biden no longer does press conferences. That’s not acceptable."

"Mr. Biden is turning into a news media evader, and it’s harmful to his presidency and the nation.... (A news conference involves the president taking questions from multiple reporters; a one-on-one interview with a handpicked journalist doesn’t count.) So far in 2023, Mr. Biden has done zero solo news conferences.... It is widely known that Mr. Biden is gaffe-prone and that news conferences are not his forte. But as he runs for a second term, he should be eager to show he can handle all aspects of the job. Pick up the microphone, Mr. President. The media is not your enemy."

That last sentence is true. The media want to support him. I don't think you have to convince him of that. The extraordinary thing is that he knows he has their support and he still won't even approach a normal amount of contact with them.

But why this editorial now? The new Washington Post/ABC poll seems to have lit a fire under them:The Washington Post Editorial Board closes in on Biden:

The Washington Post Editorial Board closes in on Biden:

"There are no witnesses to call to prove a negative."

Trump's lawyer said in his opening statement, quoted in "Jury in Carroll's civil case against Trump to hear closing statements" (WaPo). Closing statements are expected to begin today.

On Thursday, even after his attorney had said Trump would not testify, he made comments to reporters in Ireland suggesting he might make a surprise appearance at the trial after all.

His attorneys did not call witnesses to testify — instead opting to put on a case through cross-examination of Carroll and others who did testify. Trump and his lawyers have repeatedly said the story was made up by Carroll and a pair of her friends.

Elsewhere in today's Washington Post, we see news of a new poll — "Biden faces broad negative ratings at start of campaign, Post-ABC poll finds" — that shows Trump enduring:

When asked who they would support in 2024, 44 percent of voting-age adults say they would “definitely” or “probably” vote for Trump while 38 percent would definitely or probably vote for Biden. The remaining 18 percent are either undecided or gave another answer.

Trump haters can say, yeah, but the whole 18% in the middle is going to have to go for Biden in the end. Trump is stuck with his 44% diehards, but nobody else can stand him. Right? Isn't that how they have to keep from going crazy? 

Trump popularity spikes.

Real Clear Politics tracks the polls:

Trump popularity spikes. 

The most recent Reuters poll, taken from 3/31 - 4/3, has Trump up by 29 percentage points. In the previous Reuters poll, 3/14 - 3/20, Trump was only up by 14. In the most recent Trafalgar Group poll, 3/31 - 4/2, Trump is up by 33 points. In the previous Trafalgar Group poll, he was up by 14.

It seems obvious that the indictment has improved his standing. Nice work, Trump haters. 
Even independents think our moral values are "poor."The Washington Post Editorial Board closes in on Biden: "Biden no longer does press conferences. That’s not acceptable."What a difference an arraignment makes.Trump popularity spikes.

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